We have less than one month until the COP 26 summit — the key climate change negotiations taking place in early November in Glasgow, where world leaders will come together to discuss strategy and take action to address the climate crisis. The stakes couldn’t be higher for this year’s summit. When the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was released earlier this year, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called it "a code red for humanity.” And Secretary Kerry, the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, said this summit is our “last best chance” for serious action on climate change.
Assuming governments stick to their current bare-minimum commitments, which many believe is unlikely, the world is already on course for a 2.7 °C minimum temperature rise. Such a rise would be catastrophic for the planet, and especially for the poor and vulnerable people on the frontlines – the majority of whom have done the least to contribute to climate change in the first place.
According to the IPCC report, the globe is on course for persistent sea level rise and dangerous flooding, as well as more frequent extreme weather events, which will leave millions without homes and at risk of food insecurity. We are beginning to see those effects already, but they will only continue to worsen.
So what do we need urgently from our leaders?
1/ Global commitments to slashing emissions
To reduce emissions and avoid a greater than 1.5 ℃ temperature rise, the level that scientists agree we need to stay under to avoid catastrophic and possibly irreversible changes to the planet, the world must commit to net zero emissions by 2050, and collectively halve emissions by 2030 at a minimum. More than 120 national governments (as well as many private sector leaders) have signed up to the 2050 goal but there are notable outliers, including my home country of Australia. They need to step up now. And they must also match net zero pledges with serious short term emission reduction targets that get us to halving emissions worldwide by 2030.
2/ Matching U.S. words with Congressional action
As one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, a lot of attention and focus will be on Washington over coming weeks. The U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement and has made some bold commitments to dramatically reduce emissions since President Biden took office in early 2021. But without action and policies to match, these commitments could be seen as shallow and at risk of reversal after a change in U.S. administration. This may prompt other nations to come with less than desirable policies themselves. Rather than relying on rhetoric, the Biden Administration needs a credible roadmap to achieve emissions targets, which is only achievable if they are fully funded.
For that to happen, President Biden must get his climate agenda through Congress. There are two key bills critical here: the American Jobs Plan (commonly referred to as the bipartisan infrastructure bill), and the Build Back Better Act. The proposed Build Back Better legislation has ambitious climate provisions, but the risk is high that they get watered down as part of ongoing negotiations to reduce the overall price tag of the bill.
But if these bills are passed with the climate provisions intact, not only will they become the most consequential legislation in U.S. history to tackle climate change, but they will also give the U.S. legitimacy ahead of Glasgow. U.S. leadership would be a game changer for global climate negotiations, and will help convince other world leaders to do their part to address climate change.
Reverend Yearwood said it best at Global Citizen Live:
“The climate crisis is here. And it’s those in poverty — Black and Brown communities, and marginalized people — that are bearing the brunt of its horrific effects. But we have the chance to make history soon. Congress can pass the strongest and most transformative climate legislation in American history through the Build Back Better Act. … And this legislation isn’t only important to climate action in the U.S. Without it, President Biden won’t have the weight needed to push other big polluting countries, like India, China, and Brazil to prevent catastrophic levels of global warming.”
3/ The developed world keeping its promise to support adaptation
The developed world is responsible for 80% of all historical industrial emissions that are now making climate change worse. It is unfair and unjust to expect developing countries to forgo their right to development because the carbon budget was already utilized by advanced industrialized countries of the west. All nations deserve the right to develop and lift their populations out of poverty. But if all developing countries followed the path of the west, the planet would be in grave peril. To address this concern and ensure a just transition, wealthy countries promised by 2020 to provide $100 billion per year to developing countries to help pay the costs to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Like so many promises — for donor countries to give 0.7% of their national income as foreign aid, recent insincere and unfunded calls of “vaccine equity” — this pledge was left unfilled at its deadline last year. In recent months, pledges have begun to be made to make up the shortfall ahead of COP. Most notably, President Biden committed to double climate financing during his recent address to the UN General Assembly. Even with this, the U.S., as well as Australia, Spain, and Canada still give less than their estimated fair share, and below what the Nordic countries, France, and Germany provide.
Of the promised $100 billion, there is an estimated gap of $10-15 billion that must be met by COP26. Without pledges to meet this shortfall, it will be hard to stop the erosion of trust between developed and developing countries, and to expect emerging economies to offer their own climate commitments when others have not kept their end of the bargain. We’re looking at Italy, especially in its role as the current chair of the G20, to follow up on its pledge at Global Citizen Live to increase its commitment in coming weeks.
The major developed economies can also free up additional funds for climate adaptation using their special drawing rights (SDRs) (we did a brief explainer here). The International Monetary Fund is currently working on mechanisms that would allow the “recycling’’ of SDRs from richer to poorer countries, including to support green growth. France, at Global Citizen Live, was the first country to announce that they will reallocate at least 20% of their SDRs to Africa in order to support a green recovery. This will translate to more than $5 billion. Other G20 nations can follow suit at next week’s G20 Finance ministerial meeting. The needs are there, but so too does the solution.
Denmark’s Prime Minister, herself committing to increase her nation’s climate funding, stated the case for greater ambition clearly at Global Citizen Live:
“Those that pollute most need to step up. And the richest countries too. Denmark will contribute 1% of the collective target of $100 billion dollars. And 60% of our climate aid will help developing countries adapt to climate change. If we can, G20 can.
4/ Protecting nature so nature can protect us!
Lastly, we not only have to stop emissions immediately, but also remove existing gases that cause climate change. Some technologies such as direct air capture are promising, but are in infancy and prohibitively expensive. Nature-based solutions, done well, can play a significant role in drawing down atmospheric greenhouse gases. In particular, conserving, restoring, and growing forests can sequester carbon, as well as improve air quality, protect biodiversity, and provide livelihoods for communities, especially indigenous ones.
With so much at stake for our planet and humanity itself, we must do all that we can in the month to come. That’s why Global CItizen is joining a coalition of organizations to support the Code Red campaign to pass U.S. climate legislation, as well as pressuring wealthy countries to come to the G20 in Rome with concrete commitments to act on the climate crisis — plans that they will solidify in Glasgow at COP26.
There is little doubt that this summit will be a watershed moment for humanity, but the question that remains is whether it will be a turning point or a point of no return. The answer is up to us.
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October 07, 2021 at 08:00PM
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